Wargaming the Assembly: Minority Government, Stormont Reform, or more of the same?

Nine months out from an assembly and local election, Northern Ireland’s electorate is contemplating redrawing the political map. This week’s widely reported LucidTalk poll saw Sinn Féin (22%), the DUP (15%) and the Alliance Party (10%) all drop to five-year low levels of support at the expense of a resurgent UUP (16%) and SDLP (13%). This aligns with national trends in Great Britain, where Reform UK and the Green Party are threatening to end the Labour-Conservative...